“That gradually increased gold reserves have returned to brand-new highs, driven by escalating geopolitical tumults and the like for safe havens. The general consensus seems positive for the next few days for gold and silver, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst – Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan; nothing, however, is going to be permanently obstructed by intraday-volatility.

Gold price performance recently

Gold moved north with vigor in the week ending January 16, increasing approximately two percent to $4,595 in the spot market. This rose by 4.6 percent– massive movement seen in almost weekly terms.

The rally was quickly followed by escalated nervousness in the world about fresh geopolitical concerns. On January 17, the US President threatened to impose new tariffs on eight European Union nations from February 1 in response to opposition against his Greenland plans, resulting in high volatility to gold that culminated in a fresh all-time high of $4,690 on January 19.

At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,672, while the MCX February contract stood at approximately ₹1,45,500, up nearly 1.7% for the day.

ETF flows and COMEX inventory changes

Global gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings increased for a second consecutive week. As of January 16, total known ETF holdings stood at 99.86 million ounces, which represented the highest level of holdings since August 2022, and up by nearly 1% year-to-date.

Contrarily, COMEX gold inventories surged to 18.86 million ounces, following a cycle-low of 17.86 million ounces. Yet, it is still 22% below its all-time high of 24.25 million ounces set in April.

Dollar, bond yields, and macro signals

On January 19, the US Dollar Index slid nearly 0.15% to 99.08 after climbing for three consecutive weeks. Last week, US Treasury yields on two-year and ten-year debt rose a combined 2%.

Markets are doubtful with regard to future Federal Reserve leadership, after the US President expressed concern that Kevin Hassett should be chosen, who has proposed lower interest charges. On January 19, since of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday US bond markets stayed closed.

Exchange strains and tariff risks

Trade-related nervousness remains very sector-specific in which precious metals are involved. Last weekend, US President reiterated his intentions to impose a 10-percent tariff on the coloring households and educational items of eight countries of the EU, starting from February 1, 25 percent from June 1 unless a bargain is put together.

European representatives are broaching the possibility of imposing retaliatory tariffs on as much as €93 billion of US products. Conversely, the EU is contemplating to use an anti-coercion instrument that might involve trade restrictions, as well as investment curbs and bans on US companies from bidding for public contracts.

The International Monetary Fund, paying attention to the possibility of slackened global growth, blames world-wide debt. However, fears at the internation level for the coming problems endangering the global economy are rampant due to the constant prying of interest rates between the US Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China. As such, the IMF sees not much hope but presents a major worry.

Upcoming global events to look for

The market participants are expected to watch the trade news and developments regarding which decisions come out of the US Supreme Court on the dismissal of previous tariffs. Decisions might come in a week’s time or so and create short-term volatility.

On the other hand, much concern in the global perspective is primarily ignited by the lack of policy coordination by China and the United States with their fundamentally differing paths in setting interest rates, increasing or decreasing them, thereby threatening the global economy. Thus, the IMF offered little hope but significant concerns regarding the same.

Economic data by market snapshot

Among the latest figures to hit the market, China’s fourth quarter GDP figure for 2025 comes out to an upward revision of 4.5%, slightly above consensus. However, the so-called main economic indicators for December- retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment-missed the 22.6%, 2.2%, and 1.9% growth increments could not be comforted by the value-triggering figure in GDP.

In the United States, inflation data for December came in on the eve of market expectations. Price inflation and core inflation, both retail sales coming upward as well as price inflation of goods reaching above the market outlook, again out of expectations.

Gold Price Mediation

According to Singh, the unexpected massing of hot US – EU interactions over Greenland has served as a catalyst to push gold prices high, although gold might have been a bit under pressure on a stronger dollar, easing of the Middle East tensions, and a lower expectation on the Federal Reserve towards dovish trait.

Going forward, spot gold might hit resistance until approximately $4,750 (MCX February: ₹1,48,000) amid ongoing tariff-related uncertainties. Still, one is better off being cautious and implementing some proper stop-loss measures.

The key supports presently lie at $4,608 (₹1,43,500) and $4,560 (₹1,42,000); the intermediary resistance, however, is being constituted around $4,707 (₹1,46,500).

Outlook for silver

The price rally in silver has, in effect, outperformed that of gold. In the week until January 16, silver prices advanced 12% to close at about $89.94. Since then into the weekends, prices have seen further gains, with spot silver trading near $94.42 and MCX March spot silver near ₹3,09,660.

It is noteworthy that possible tariffs from the US on the EU could restrict the transfer of silver inventories between COMEX and LBMA warehouses and further tighten the supply of the metal in the spot market. If silver manages to trade above the $94 level for two consecutive sessions, it is expected to charge toward the resistance zones at $98–$100, with MCX March likely being ₹3,21,000–₹3,28,000.

In the present market environment, we advise that our investor should be seriously vigilant with respect to the volatility. In the opinion of ana1ysts, silver could be expected to sustain support at $90 (₹2,95,000), give or take a few, and more importantly at $86 (₹2,82,000).