The media reports that former US Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh will become President Donald Trump’s selection to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair. Trump himself confirmed that an announcement would be made on Friday morning.
The Wall Street Journal The New York Times and Bloomberg reported that Trump had already made his choice to his advisers but the decision would remain pending until the president officially announced it.
At the screening of First Lady Melania Trump’s documentary Melania the president told reporters that his choice had previously been evaluated for the position. Trump made a comment about Warsh when he said “A lot of people think that this is somebody that could’ve been there a few years ago. “
Kevin Warsh served as a Federal Reserve Board member from 2006 to 2011 and he competed for the Federal Reserve Chair position which Trump awarded to Jerome Powell in 2018.
Betting Markets Swing in Warsh’s Favour
Prediction and betting markets have sharply shifted toward Warsh in recent days. In December, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was seen as the leading contender, with odds as high as 84% on Polymarket. However, those odds have now collapsed to near zero.
Earlier this week, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder briefly emerged as the favourite on Kalshi, but following Trump’s remarks on Thursday night, Warsh surged ahead. Betting platforms now place his chances of nomination at around 94–95%. Trading volumes tied to the Fed chair decision have exceeded $300 million on Polymarket and $90 million on Kalshi, reflecting intense market interest.
Background to the Fed Chair Change
Trump has continuously criticized Jerome Powell since his second term started because their disagreements about monetary policy decisions have created ongoing tension between them. The US Department of Justice launched an investigation into Powell earlier this month because he allegedly made false statements about the Federal Reserve headquarters $2.5 billion renovation project which Powell has denied. Under US law, the Fed chair cannot be removed outright by the president.
Apart from Warsh, other names that have been floated as potential successors include Fed Governor Christopher Waller, NEC chief Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. Powell has not yet indicated whether he plans to remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his term as chair ends.
If confirmed, Warsh’s appointment would mark a significant shift in the leadership of the US central bank at a time of heightened political and economic scrutiny.
