The high dependency of India on Russian crude oil creates difficulties for establishing an instant energy supply transition from Moscow because of rising geopolitical demands.

President Donald Trump recently declared that India would cease its Russian oil purchases which would create major changes to international crude markets if the country carried out this decision. However, analysts believe that the most populous country in the world will face difficulties when attempting to decrease these import numbers.

India imports approximately one-third of its oil from Russia which represents a significant increase from its previous 2 percent import rate during the time period before Russia started its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The increase occurred because Western nations rejected Russian energy sources which led to Moscow selling crude oil at highly discounted rates. India which requires increasing energy supplies as a major oil importer used the lower prices to control fuel expenditures.

The presence of discounted Russian crude enabled Indian refiners to combat inflation effects while keeping their domestic fuel costs stable. Over time, refineries developed their operational capabilities to handle larger quantities of Russian oil which resulted in increased national dependence on Russian petroleum supplies.

Analysts state that India needs to obtain replacement supplies from other sources but those alternative sources will come at a higher cost because the country requires to rewrite its existing deals while it needs to change its refining operations. The sudden market changes will expose India to price fluctuations because the world oil market currently operates at high demand levels.

India will start to diversify its crude oil sources throughout its pipeline because the ongoing geopolitical conflicts will create international political conflicts which will continue. According to experts, the process of stopping Russian oil imports requires more time because it presents multiple economic and operational challenges which need to be resolved before any policy changes can take effect.