Indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States are set to resume in Geneva this week, even as tensions escalate with fresh sanctions, military posturing, and strong rhetoric from both sides.

Thrust of Diplomacy Against Mounting Pressure

“Iran’s nuclear chief diplomat Abbas Aragchi had actually come to Geneva, in the light of the second round, Oman-led talks happening across the Atlantic” to ease suspicion over Iran’s nuclear energy, whereas both Iran and US expressed their real hopes for a political compromise.

Prior to his departure, Araghchi reiterated that an agreement “clear and fair balance” is achievable, saying that Iran sought no nuclear weapons and abided by nuclear technology for peaceful ends.

The third round follows talks on February 6 in Oman and February 17 in Geneva, which were reported to have earlier rough understandings and no concrete deal reached.

US Warning and New Sanctions

The talks were held in the context of immense pressure from the administration of President Donald Trump, which has announced new sanctions on individuals, entities, and vessels associated with Iran’s oil trade and weapons financing.

US Vice President JD Vance, in his address, accused Tehran of trying to put together capabilities once again after the US strikes on these nuclear sites a year ago. While the US says it prefers the returns of diplomacy, the officials comment that military choices are in sight if Iran takes steps to carry on towards a nuclear warhead.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio underscored the importance of discussions to prevent homemade ballistic missile deployment from Tehran, calling Iran’s insistence to exclude its missile program from future negotiations “a most costly disrespect”.

Militarization in the Region

In addition to the punitive measures, the US has made significant military presence in the Middle East- airlifted carriers, additional troops, and advanced fighter jets.

However it is the Straits of Hormuz that really keep things interesting. Iran has made a cogent response in case of military action – retaliate against US bases located elsewhere in the region or block the Hormuz oil supply through which 30% of the world’s oil passes.

Deep Divisions

Divergence of opinion marks a discussion on uranium enrichment level, missile activities, regional activities, security issues, and any sort of security dialogue. The Iranians call false allegations made by the US regarding a nuclear weapons program, and the same with respect to their development works.

For now, a possibility of dialogue is still there despite the huge gap in expectations.

Yet, no one except for the expected outcome of the Geneva talks will predict what is going to happen in the US-Iran situation.