The Indian equity markets will face downward pressure on Monday as investors analyze the intense market response which followed the Union Budget 2026-27 announcement that included an unexpected increase in the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) applied to derivatives. The trading cost increase has brought negative market sentiment which affects stocks that rely on futures and options as well as brokerage firms resulting in persistent market fluctuations.

The STT on futures has been raised to 0.05% from 0.02% while options STT has been increased to 0.15% from 0.10-0.125%. Market players have begun to reevaluate their holdings which will occur before the upcoming changes that will begin their implementation on April 1.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stated that domestic institutional investor (DII) buying can provide market support but current market conditions remain unstable. “The long-term India growth story is intact but short-term volatility and correction risks are likely to persist until stability returns,” he noted.

Gold and Silver Prices Rebound After Sharp Fall

Gold and silver prices began to recover after experiencing their biggest single-day decline since 1980 on Friday. COMEX silver opened with an upside gap which allowed it to reach an intraday high of $87.97 per ounce while COMEX gold reached $4,905.71 per ounce shortly after its opening.

The sharp sell-off last week was caused by US dollar strength which coincided with global market declines and rising fears about monetary policy tightening because Kevin Warsh who supports hawkish policies had been nominated to become the next US Federal Reserve chair.

She explained that the market correction followed a period of exceptional market rallying which saw gold and silver reach their highest prices ever because of geopolitical tensions and weak US dollar performance. Silver experienced greater price declines because of its heightened price volatility which included industrial demand losses and recent margin increases that CME implemented.

USD vs INR Outlook

The rupee continues to exchange within its established range against the US dollar on the currency market. The USD/INR exchange rate operates between 91.80 and 92.65 which creates an upward trend except for its current momentary weakness.

Ponmudi R stated that the 91.40-91.50 range functions as a vital support point. Any extended decrease below this threshold will lead to reduced support for bullion prices that stem from currency movements. The market currently maintains a neutral to slightly bullish outlook while yet to demonstrate any strong breakout patterns.

Nifty 50 and Sensex Trade Setup

Shrikant Chouhan who leads Equity Research at Kotak Securities predicts that the market will experience continuous price swings during upcoming days. He recommended that traders should implement a strategy which relies on specific price levels.

The Nifty index faces its main resistance point at 25,000 while the Sensex shows its resistance point at 81,300. Negative market sentiment will continue until the index succeeds in surpassing this critical level. The correction process will move towards the 24,650-24,600 range while additional index weakness will push the market further downwards.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The Bank Nifty index currently exhibits a negative market trend. The primary support level exists between 58,000 and 58,250 which corresponds with the 100-day exponential moving average. The 58,900-59,000 price range has developed into a significant resistance zone.

The MACD momentum indicators have shifted to negative territory across all momentum indicators. Analysts recommend that investors sell during price increases until the index reaches 59,000 with substantial trading volume to confirm an upward trend.

Stocks to Buy Today

Market experts have identified eight stocks for intraday trading amid volatile conditions:

Sumeet Bagadia (Choice Broking):

Medanta: Buy at ₹1,120 | Target ₹1,200 | Stop Loss ₹1,080

Netweb Technologies: Buy at ₹3,305 | Target ₹3,535 | Stop Loss ₹3,190

Ganesh Dongre (Anand Rathi):

Wipro: Buy at ₹241 | Target ₹262 | Stop Loss ₹230

TCS: Buy at ₹3,180 | Target ₹3,400 | Stop Loss ₹3,100

Max Healthcare: Buy at ₹974 | Target ₹1,010 | Stop Loss ₹950

Shiju Koothupalakkal (Prabhudas Lilladher):

Kaynes Technology: Buy at ₹3,560 | Target ₹3,760 | Stop Loss ₹3,480

Ather Energy: Buy at ₹626 | Target ₹666 | Stop Loss ₹612

Aster DM Healthcare: Buy at ₹570 | Target ₹615 | Stop Loss ₹556